Some Olympic thoughts

Entering the Olympic tournament, I didn't have high expectations about the US men's hockey team. My guess was a 2-1 or 1-2 record in the preliminary round, with Norway being the only sure win and the Canada game a certain loss. After that, they'd probably beat up on a weaker team to make the quarters, only to lose to a team like Finland or Sweden and finish off the podium.

Instead: the US swept the prelims, survived the quarters, steamrolled Finland and goes for gold against Canada tomorrow. Whoever put money down on that, you're probably lighting cigars with $20 bills right now.  No matter the outcome, I'm so proud of the team that represents my country.

I'm not only pleasantly surprised by the results thus far, but by the way the US team has played the game, as David points out at Die by the Blade:

I realized something important today, something I should have realized during the Canada game. This team is not the most talented team in the tournament but most of them are willing to pay the price to win. They have a desire that most of the more talented teams seem to be lacking.

And that desire is what makes this team so appealing to Sabre fans.  We know what a team that plays without it looks like - observe the '07-'08 and '08-'09 editions of the Sabres, and I don't blame you if you want to toss the '06-'07 team we saw in the conference finals against Ottawa in there as well.  Ryan Miller's presence between the pipes for Team USA piqued our interest, but the passion the team around him has displayed has kept us watching. 

In fact: because of how much I've enjoyed watching this team, I haven't missed watching the Sabres that much and I've mostly forgotten about how poorly they played in January and February.  I've barely heard much mention about the latter point around the blogosphere, either.

Canada may have more talented players, but Brian Burke may have built a better team.  This frightens me a bit as a Sabre fan, because it suggests the Leafs won't be terrible forever, but for now I'm just going to enjoy the moment.

USA!  USA!  USA!

An epic win

I'm still basking in the euphoria of last night's epic USA win over Canada.

I don't want to hear that the US hasn't won anything yet.  Yes, we have.  By beating the supposedly unbeatable Canadians, who as you know are clearly preordained to win the whole thing, the US team has won something very significant: confidence.  This group mostly made up of kids now knows that they can beat anyone.  And, although less important, beating a team we haven't beaten in the Olympics for 50 years is kind of a big deal - "meaningless" preliminary play notwithstanding.

I don't want to hear that Ryan Miller "singlehandedly" won this game.  Miller was outstanding and the United States needed every one of his 42 saves.  If Thomas or Quick were in net, it's reasonable to make the case that Canada would have won.  But "singlehandedly"?  That takes away from all the US skaters who forechecked, blocked shots, hustled, withstood a relentless Canadian attack, and most importantly, scored four goals plus an empty-netter.  I know it's tempting to call this the "Millercle on Ice", but come on.

That said, I am extremely frigging proud of Ryan Miller.  We Sabres fans already knew how good he was.  Now the whole world knows it.  Now Americans who don't even follow hockey know it.  And I am equally as proud of all the other players representing the red, white and blue.  Rafalski, who scored two goals.  Drury, who gave the US a lead they would not relinquish following a crazy scramble in front of the Canadian net. Kesler, who scored the single greatest and most hard-working empty-net goal in the history of hockey.  Backes and Callahan, whose forecheck was ferocious.  The list goes on and on.

This game is easily in the top five sporting events I've ever experienced.  It felt like what I'd imagine a Game 7 of a Stanley Cup final would feel like if the Sabres were in it.  You know what would be better, though?  Gold. Go get it, boys.

Go USA!

On the blogroll, meet-ups, and Sabres withdrawal

This is way, way overdue, but last week was pretty brutal at work and killed my productivity with anything related to this blog.  So I'm finally getting around to adding a few more folks to the blogroll, in no particular order: 3rd Man In, Black and Blue and Gold, Joe from NYC, and Two Minutes for Roughing.  These are all people whose work I admire greatly.  You're probably reading them already, but if you aren't, you should.  I think I've got all the folks who I met at the Sabre blogger get-together at Casa di Pizza a couple weeks ago on the blogroll now.  If I'm missing any of you, please give me a holler!

Speaking of Sabrebloggerconapalooza 2010 - and I'm way overdue on mentioning this too - it was a hoot.  I got to know some folks whose writing inspired me to get into blogging in the first place, and without exception, the Sabres blogosphere is made up of a bunch of great people.  Big, big thanks to Kevin at Bfloblog, Ryan at the Goose's Roost, and Kate at the Willful Caboose for setting it all up.  Hope we can do it again sometime.

The Olympic break provides a good opportunity to do some statistical analysis, so over the next two weeks I'm going to try to identify some stats that interest me and post about them.  Other than that, I'll be suffering through Sabres withdrawal just like the rest of you. What the hell do you mean we don't play again until March?!?

Recap: 2/13/10 Sabres vs. Sharks - The streak is over

Recap (courtesy Sabres.com)

Well, that's a relief.  Sure felt like we were never winning again.  This one was especially important, I think, because I certainly wouldn't want to be stewing over a seven-game losing streak for two weeks.

Buffalo skated well and moved the puck well, and never really allowed San Jose much time to set up in its offensive zone.  The sustained pressure that they allowed against Boston and Carolina - namely, allowing their opponents to set up base camp in front of Miller and hack away at rebounds - was nowhere to be found tonight.  Detractors will say that the Sabres took advantage of a San Jose team that was flat from the beginning, the product of a third game in four nights - but Buffalo wasn't allowed to use that excuse during its Western road trip, so I'm not interested in hearing that.

Not getting bounces seems to have been a theme throughout the losing streak, so it was fitting that the first goal involved a bit of luck.  Tallinder made a nice, aggressive play to rush up the left wing, drawing three Sharks to him, then "launched" (and I use that term very loosely) a glacially slow pass across the crease that the San Jose defense may still be trying to locate.  Gaustad was in the right place at the right time and banged it home, but that's a pass that isn't making it across 99% of the time.

Nabokov was outstanding for the Sharks.  If not for a couple of robberies, it could have been 5-0 by the end of the second.  At his end, Miller had a solid game except for whiffing on the Huskins goal.  It's a bit concerning to me that he keeps giving up soft goals like this.  That's at least four games in a row now, but a win is a win I suppose.

On a personal note, it's really odd to think that it's only February and I'm only going to three more regular season games this year.  Out of eight home games in March, we've sold six of them.  Yet another reason I'm relieved we won tonight.

So now we're back in first place, at least for the moment.  If the Islanders beat Ottawa tomorrow, we'll remain in first place until the beginning of March. For all the failures of the last two years and all the struggles we've had since January, who amongst us thought we'd be able to say "first in the Northeast" with a month left in the season?  Good stuff.

How does Don Waddell still have a job?

I'm working on something about my less-than-excellent adventure to Columbus, but first, I've got to get this off my chest:

Don Waddell, have you completely lost your mind?

I get that you're frustrated because you couldn't re-sign the best player you've ever been lucky enough to draft #1 overall.  Sure, 12 years and $101 million is a lot of money to turn down.  But then you throw out a quote like this:

"As we found it, it was all about money," Waddell said. "We built a team Kovy liked. We knew Kovy wanted to stay the rest of his career in Atlanta if he could. But if we were going to sign a player to that contract, tell me which one of our young players you want to trade?"

Read that again. "Which one of our young players you want to trade?"  If it really is a one-for-one situation, how about trading - I don't know - anyone not named Kovalchuk?

I'm hoping this is just an unfortunate incident of poor phrasing, but given Waddell's track record, I have a feeling he just traded away the best player in franchise history so he could re-sign Bryan Little.

This serves as a nice reminder to Sabres fans who complain about Darcy Regier: it could always be worse.

Pregame 2/3/10 - Sabres vs. Senators: Kryptonite Edition

Nothing gets me pumped up like a game against Ottawa, and for all the wrong reasons.

0-2-1 this year.  10-20-3 overall since the lockout.  0-5-2 in the last seven.  A lopsided five-game loss in the '06-'07 Eastern Conference finals, and we haven't seen the playoffs since. 

But you already knew those numbers, didn't you?   Yes, you're fully aware that the Ottawa Senators are the Sabres' kryptonite.  It doesn't matter where either team is in the standings, the Sabres just can't seem to beat Ottawa.  It's not unlike the one-sided Bills-Dolphins "rivalry" in the 70s or the Bills' 12-game losing streak to their current tormentors, the Patriots.  You would give your left arm to see a win, just this once.

If such a prolonged lack of success against one team doesn't get your blood pumping, how about the despicable cast of characters?  Alfredsson.  Spezza.  Neil.   Ruutu.  (Ruutu again.)  Just a short time ago, it included Heatley and Emery.  (OK, the latter was mostly just a punchline.)  There's nothing to like here.  It's a Who's Who of NHL dirtbags.

Just another game?  No, not tonight.  Not against this team.  The Sabres have had control of the Northeast nearly all year, and on January 12th, Ottawa was 13 points behind the Sabres.  Some foolish people had all but left them for dead.  Since then they have won nine straight, and now a regulation loss to Ottawa leaves the Sens just three back.  Combine that with the current losing streak, and this has "statement game" written all over it.

Ottawa's nine-game winning streak has been built on defense and goaltending, giving up just ten goals during that span, so the Sabres have to tighten up defensively because scoring chances are not going to be plentiful. If they plan on playing too aggressively like they did against Pittsburgh, this game could be over quickly.

I won't be in my usual seats in 308 tonight, because I foolishly sold these tickets before the season began. At least I get to watch a game in HD for a change, which has been rare for me this season.

This is war.  Are you ready?  I am.

Let's Go Buffalo!

Predictions: 2-1 Sabres, 58 combined shots on goal, first penalty: roughing

Leafs trade talk

I don't want to spend too much time discussing Toronto's trade activity from yesterday, but it deserves a mention since it'll have some impact on us down the road.

First, the obvious: these trades don't help Toronto much this year. The Leafs need to win each of their remaining 26 games just to finish with 97 points, which is only slightly more of a miracle than, say, turning water into wine. They improve in goal immediately, but gave up 39% of their goal scoring to do so.  Phaneuf and Sjostrom can't even come close to making that up.

So while it's possible that Burke is simply trying to ensure that Boston gets Taylor Hall next year, I'm guessing he's probably more interested in fixing Toronto's cap problems.

Both Giguere and Phaneuf come to Toronto in hopes of rediscovering their games.  Giguere hasn't been the same since the Cup win in 2007, and Phaneuf has fallen off his game and faces questions about his character after a fantastic rookie season.  Toronto, of course, is the best place in the NHL to rejuvenate your career, as there's no media pressure and the fans barely pay attention at all.

I honestly cannot believe anyone was dumb enough to take on Jason Blake's contract.  It's not Scott Gomez-level bad, but $4 million for Blake (for another two years!) is pretty atrocious.  Yet Burke found a sucker way to get rid of that albatross by trading for Giguere.   It's a good, low-risk move for Toronto that becomes a clear win if Giguere pans out and they re-sign him; if he doesn't, he's off the books after next year.  Phaneuf is the riskier reclamation project in the sense that his cap hit is $6.5 million through 2014, but he has enormous potential.

I give the guy credit: Burke knows how to make headlines with a blockbuster trade or two.  Toronto acquired two big-name players in Giguere and Phaneuf, and made a ton of noise in doing so.  Burke got rid of a bad contract, but Toronto now has $25 million is now tied up in defensemen and $32 million for just three players (Phaneuf, Kessel, Giguere) next year, so you can bet the farm that Burke is most certainly not done.