Wednesday, January 27, 2010

I'm not panicking. You shouldn't either.

A lot of folks are currently freaking out over the seven-game road trip in which the Sabres went 2-3-2.  I'm not one of them, and using the magic of statistics I'll attempt to explain why.

Here's a look at each season's longest roadtrip since the lockout.  (In some cases, a single home game separated two road trips of three games or more; I considered these to be a single long roadtrip since the travel is still constant.)

2005-06: 6 games, 1/16/06 - 1/31/06, 4-2-0
2006-07: 7 games (1 home game), 1/20/07 - 2/6/07, 2-4-1
2007-08: 7 games, 1/19/08 - 2/5/08, 4-2-1
2008-09: 10 games (1 at home), 1/10/09 - 2/2/09, 5-5-0

To get a sense of how the distance away from home might affect the team, here's how the Sabres fared on the road against teams in the Northwest and Central that are at least two timezones away (which obviously excludes Dallas and Minnesota):

2005-06: 2-2-0 (Oilers, Flames, Canucks, Avs)
2006-07: none (no games vs. Pacific, all games vs. Northwest at HSBC Arena)
2007-08: 1-3-0 (Ducks, Kings, Sharks, Coyotes)
2008-09: 2-2-1 (Oilers, Flames, Coyotes, Ducks, Avs)

You've probably figured out what I'm getting at with these numbers: extended roadtrips can be brutal, and a Western road trip is even more so.  Historically, the Sabres have struggled with them, but as Kevin points out
at BfloBlog, they're not the only top team in the East to struggle on the road vs. the West.  Furthermore, the Ducks, Kings, Canucks, and Sharks are all on a tear right now, going a combined 28-10-2 in their last ten games.  Given all this, 1-3-1 on the five-game Western swing isn't surprising.

Except for a single horrific period against Anaheim, the Sabres played well enough to win.  Against San Jose, I'd even argue they dominated.  But in each game, they made significant mistakes that ultimately submarined their chances: Pominville's blind backhand pass in his own zone in the third period against Anaheim; Drew Stafford's pitiful backcheck that led to the Kings goal that sent the game to OT; Steve Montador's charitable contributions to various San Jose forwards; and as Vance at at Double Edged Sabres broke down so well, a series of bad decisions that led to a Henrik Sedin breakaway goal.

Some people are concerned because this trip "proved" that the Sabres can't win a 7-game series against a Western team.  I think that's hogwash.  A single game against a team doesn't prove anything other than who was the better team that night.  And if that meant anything, the playoffs would be a single-game elimination tournament.

The first game back home after a lengthy trip doesn't promise to be any better in terms of travel fatigue.  Lindy talked about this on his show this morning, saying that shifts will need to be kept short.  So if we lose to New Jersey tonight, I won't be shocked.  Dropping two or three more straight, though... now that will get me concerned.

Friday, January 22, 2010

Recap: 1/21/10 Sabres vs. Kings - Zzzzzzzzz.

Recap (courtesy Sabres.com)

Hoo boy, am I ever dragging today, folks.  I said previously that I was a night owl, and I am.  But a game that starts at 10:30 EST, and then goes into overtime, then a shootout... that's a bit much for even me to handle. I vaguely recall crawling into bed around 1:30, although I'm not quite sure how I got there.

However, those sleepy noises in the title up there have nothing to do with the quality of the actual game. The Kings had the better chances throughout, but overall it was an even, hard-fought, well-contested, fast-paced, exciting game.  In other words, the exact opposite of playing the Florida Panthers. At one point in the third, it almost felt playoff-like to me.  It's a shame either team had to lose, but I'm certain we would have had two points if not for two factors: 1) Connolly's inability to lift a backhander six inches off the ice to beat a prone Jon Quick in the shootout; 2) Ryan Miller's recent penchant to morph into Dan Cloutier during the skills competition.

Most of the goals were of the "go to the net" variety.  Vanek's was a prime example - and sure, he got away with a bit of a crosscheck, but I think that was a good non-call because Doughty clearly flopped in my eyes.  In the past, I've been critical of the Sabres' unwillingness to get dirty in front of the net, save for Gaustad and Vanek who always set up base camp in front of a goaltender.  The '06-'07 Sabres scored a ton of goals in the transition game, but the league has changed a lot even in that short timeframe - it occurred to me in the playoffs last year that goals just aren't getting scored off the rush with the same frequency.  Teams have adjusted to the new rules and are playing with greater defensive responsibility, taking many of those transition chances away.  It seems that goals are mostly getting scored nowadays by cycling well, getting shots to the net and parking a big body in front to gobble up rebounds (and Quick certainly was giving up some juicy ones last night), so it's nice to see that the Sabres have gotten that memo, and haven't been afraid to go to the net.

Kudos to the Kings broadcast team for, well, not being the Ducks broadcast team.  They did remind us that Lindy is the longest tenured head coach in the NHL at least three times by my count, but at least we didn't have to hear about how tall Tyler Myers is all night long.  I often think that color man Jim Fox sounds like a used car salesman, but he wasn't bad at all last night.  I miss hearing Rick and Harry, but the next two broadcast teams should be decent.  The Sharks' team of Randy Hahn and Drew Remenda is very good, and if Jim Hughson still does Canucks games, I'm a big fan of his work as well.

The tying goal by Ryan Smyth was another good example of going to the net.  It was also an example of a terrible backcheck by Drew Stafford.  So for that, Staffy, you're fired.

Next Game: 1/23 vs. San Jose.  If you subscribe to the notion of having an Eastern Conference team and a Western Conference team, the Sharks would be it for me.  They lead the Pacific Division by about a billion points and have only lost four games at home all year, so this will be quite a test for our boys.

Thursday, January 21, 2010

Don't tell my wife I said this, but...

Right now, I'm practicing growing my playoff beard.

That's right, I said it.  Playoffs.  As in, this team will be in them, so why shouldn't I get ready myself?   I'm not superstitious about saying the P word, and you shouldn't be either.  Since the lockout, a maximum of 94 points has been required to achieve 8th place.  That means a measly 14 wins in the final 34 games. And that's likely the worst case scenario -  last I saw, the 8th place team was on pace for only 89 points.  If that's not enough to convince you, how about a look at the Northeast?  We've got a 10-point lead on Ottawa (with three games in hand), 12 on Boston, 15 on Montreal (again, with three games in hand), and Toronto is irrelevant and has been all season.  And all of those teams have been struggling - none have bothered to be more than .500 over the last ten games.  So realistically, we're looking at no worse than the #3 seed.

Back to the beard - I haven't shaved in ten days.  My wife hates it when I don't shave, thus the title of this post.  Right now, I'm making a game out of it - how long can I go before she yells at me for not shaving?  So far, I'm at ten days and counting, and not a peep from her.  (I'm pretty sure she doesn't read this blog, so I feel somewhat safe mentioning this here.)

So yes, I'm getting excited. I'm anxiously awaiting my playoff ticket invoice in the mail.  I just hope my tax return shows up before then.

UPDATE: See, I'm not the only one thinking about the playoffs!

Wednesday, January 20, 2010

Recap: 1/19/10 Sabres vs. Ducks - Night Owls Anonymous

Recap (courtesy Sabres.com)

I really enjoy the annual west coast road trip for many reasons.  First of all, I like the novelty of seeing teams we don't usually see.  I can only take so much of the Florida Panthers and Tampa Bay Lightning.  Beyond that, there's the novelty of playing games at later times.  A lot of East Coast Sabre fans complain that they can't stay awake until 12:30 or 1am because of work or other reasons, but not me. I'm a night owl.  Also - and this is not to be discounted - it's an opportunity for me to watch an entire game without a toddler crawling all over me.  Trust me, you people without kids do NOT understand how difficult that makes it to follow a game sometimes.  (This is also partially the reason, by the way, why I haven't been posting a lot of game recaps lately.  Well, that and a dash of writer's block.  I'm told this happens from time to time.)

So imagine my disappointment when the Sabres fell behind 4-0 before the game was eleven minutes old.  The Sabres weren't skating well at all, likely because they left their feet firmly implanted in the behinds of various Phoenix Coyote players roughly 330 miles away.  Hecht made a lazy play that resulted in a turnover, bang, 1-0.  Tallinder whiffed on a puck attempting to keep it in the zone, breakaway, 2-0.  Every Sabre on the ice stood and watched as noted speedster Evgeny Artyukhin skated up left wing and similarly accomplished goal scorer Mike Brown drove to the net.  Bam.  3-0 before I could even catch up to real time on the DVR, and I only started watching five minutes late.

After Bobby Ryan's power play goal made it 4-0 and chased Patrick Lalime, the question at that point became - and I actually voiced this to my wife as she was heading upstairs to go to sleep - how long do I want to subject myself to this torture?  Seriously, these miserable non-skating jet-lagged punks are now cutting into my Guitar Hero time at this point.

Forgetting to pause the game, I went upstairs to bid goodnight to the wife as the second period began.  I returned to a 4-2 score, which of course necessitated more rewinding and catching up to real time.  (Aside: thank goodness for the technology which allows us to manipulate time in such a matter. I hereby nominate the creator of the DVR for sainthood.)  One Steve Montador "revenge against my former team" goal later, and we've got ourselves a hockey game.

I think Mike Harrington is absolutely right: this team would have lost this game 8-2 last year.  In fact, after the first period I felt reminded of a different 8-2 game, one against the Kings two years ago in which Jonathan Quick made his first NHL start.  This team IS different.  There is no quit in them.  If the three-goal second period wasn't enough proof of that, then I point to Jochen's goal in the last minute to cut the deficit to 5-4 - even though Pominville's cover-your-eyes awful giveaway had already essentially sealed our fate.  Was the comeback that fell just short a moral victory?  Sure it was.  But I can afford to be a moral victory type of guy when my team has gotten points in every game for almost a month, I guess.

Next game: 1/21 vs. Los Angeles.  I hope to be doing liveblog #3, and I'll be hanging out on Twitter too so follow me if you aren't already.

Saturday, January 9, 2010

Liveblog: 1/9/10 Sabres vs. Avalanche

Welcome to liveblog #2 here at Roll the Highlight Film.  Dinner ran late, so I'm jumping in with about 12 minutes remaining in the first.   I was about to say that the only things I missed were a Montador fight and a huge save by Lalime, but as soon as I opened the laptop, Tallinder gave away the puck like it was a hot potato and the Avs buried it to go up 1-0.  So we're starting the liveblog on a sour note here.

First Period:
- I hate to admit it, but I'm so unfamiliar with the Avalanche.  With Sakic and Forsberg gone, I couldn't name a single player on the roster outside of the goaltenders, Milan Hedjuk, Paul Stastny, and Adam Foote tonight.  It doesn't help that we only see this team once a year.

- Now it's 2-0 Avs after #3 overall pick Matt Duchene bangs home a rebound after Lydman and Montador got completely outworked in their own end.  The Sabres seem to have picked up right where they left off last night vs. Toronto.

- Sabres to the power play as goaltender Anderson chops the puck into the mesh for a delay of game.  The power play was 3 for 3 against Toronto, and it would be nice to see some carryover against a team that can in fact kill penalties.  An ECHL team could score against the Leafs on the power play.

- Nifty behind the back pass from Vanek to Myers, who just misses his fourth goal in three games.

- Another two minutes of PP time after Kennedy got high-sticked in the mouth.  Ouch.  Hope he didn't lose any more teeth.

- And that's it for the first.  The 12 minutes I sat down to watch were pretty poor.  This Colorado team seems to be catching the Sabres by surprise with its forecheck, and the Sabres are looking tired.   Can't fault Lalime for either goal; he had no chance.

Second Period:
- The Sabres are doing a better job this period of controlling the puck in the offensive zone, and have had a couple chances to show for it.  At the other end, Buffalo has got to find a way to beat this Avs forecheck.

- Aw, poor Darcy Tucker.  Excuse me for not having any sympathy for you getting high-sticked in the face.  That's what you get for going at players' knees all the time.

- Shots are 6-2 Avs so far in the second, but it feels like play has been rather even regardless.

- Sabres back to the powerplay as Pominville gets roughed up in the corner.

- So much for that.  Drew Stafford decides now is a fine time to get called for hooking.

- Last night, the refs put away the whistle in the third period.  These referees seem hell-bent on making up for that.  It's now a 4-on-3 for the Avs as Myers got whistled for a completely bogus interference call.  Apparently you're not allowed to fight for position anymore.

- All penalties have expired, but never fear, there's another one on the way!  Myers got hauled down in front of the Avs net.  Lalime was outstanding during a mad scramble in front of the net, making at least 47 saves by my count.

- I feel like I should retitle this post "Penalty Liveblog".

- Now we're talking.  Stafford cashes in on the powerplay, taking a behind-the-net feed from Goose and banging it home.  Took them forever to figure out how to enter the zone and maintain possession, and the first time they were able to control the puck down low, they got rewarded for it.  2-1 Avs and we've got a game.

- Maybe we don't.  Lalime whiffs on a Brandon Yip shot that goes over his shoulder.  3-1 Avs.  Where was Montador on that play?

- 40 minutes done.  Shots are 23-18 Avs.  Pretty even period, which would be fine if not for the 2-0 deficit entering the period.  What troubled me was the quick goal after Stafford cut it to 2-1.  You have been searching for momentum all game and finally got it - you cannot give you that goal that quickly.  You just can't.

Third Period:
- Great shift by the Sabres to start the period.  Rivet had a point blank chance that was deflected. 

- Sarah has now joined me on the couch. She's currently amusing herself with Rock Band drums, but it's only a matter of time until she turns her attention to the laptop.  If random gibberish gets posted, you'll know why.

- We have a Thomas Vanek sighting!  Not content with sharing the team lead in goals with Stafford, Vanek beats his man to the net and slams home his own rebound from Drew's feed.  A goal that was truly the product of hard work.  Game back on.

- Right before the goal, not much was going on so I decided to take a look at faceoff stats.  Right now Gaustad (of course) leads the way with 8 for 1, and not a single Sabres who has taken more than one draw is below 50%.  Kennedy is right at 50%, and even Connolly is at 55%.  That's a minor miracle right there, folks.

- Colorado is content to dump the puck.  Sabres are really putting both feet on the gas here.

- So you're down a goal with less than five minutes to play.  Who would you want out there to score the game tying goal?  Why, Jochen Hecht of course!  Terrible goal for Anderson to give up, as Hecht skated the puck out to the blue line and beat him with a fallway wrister through a crowd.  Hecht now has six points in five games.

- Avs haven't been able to get out of their own end since Hecht tied it.  Well, not without Pominville's assistance, anyway.

- Montador to the box for high sticking.  Myers with a daring clear, carrying the puck right up the center of the ice.

- End of regulation.  Sabres were fortunate to steal a point; with Colorado on the ropes, let's go get the other one.

Overtime:
- Montador penalty is now over.  Sabres back to the attack. 

- Wow, what an OT!  Several great chances at both ends, a great play by Butler to break up a 2-on-1, and general chaos all around.  I did not bother blogging any of it because I was too focused on preventing my heart from popping out of my chest.  Now it's off to the....


Shootout:
- Stafford whiffs on a backhander. 
- Hejduk scores for Colorado. 
- Connolly buries a wrister. 
- Lalime poke checks Wolski. 
- Pominville fires it wide.
- Stewart misses for Colorado off a fake.  Time for extra shooters.
- Vanek dusts off the "around the world" fake and buries it.
- Duchene scores to extend it.
- Roy shoots one right into Anderson's pads.
- Stastny does the same thing at the other end.  Round 5 anyone?
- Myers loses control at the last second.
- Yip bangs one off the post.
- MacArthur fires wide.
- Tucker gets stopped.
- Hecht sneaks one in stick side.
- O'Reilly scores to extend it again.  This is insane!
- Mair shoots it into Anderson's glove.  (Seriously, you know the shootout has gone on too lone when Mair gets a turn...)
- Liles fails to slide one past Lalime's right pad.
- Kennedy returns the favor at the other end.
- Gagliardi misses the net.  Round 11 coming up!
- Tallinder makes one too many moves and gets stopped.
- Hendricks ends it for Colorado in the eleventy millionth round, as Lalime misses on the poke check.  Bummer.

Buffalo gets a point that it probably didn't deserve, but could have stolen two.  The winning streak ends at six.